President Trump is doing a masterful job of navigating the complexities of the Covid-19 crisis! Let’s call it for what it really is…the CCP Flu (The Chinese Communist Party Flu).
As a former Global Strategist who has built predictive index and forecasting models, I try to look at the Covid-19 crisis in picture form and simplify the complexity down to some base elements. Simplification is the whole idea of creating models in the first place. While hard data is useful in dissecting the harmful and ravishing effects of Covid-19, for me, I like to look at two other significant models that have lasted over 200 years.
The Picture – We have an umbrella called the Constitution of the United States of America. Underneath that umbrella there are three primary and critical subcomponents. A. Health and Well-being B. Civil Liberties C. Economic Freedom. Each of these three major subcomponents must be protected at all costs. Ultimately, the decision making for each subcomponent MUST move in unison. In other words, we must give equal weight and consideration to each while giving supreme deference to the bylaws of America... i.e. Our Constitution. If we focus on the extremes of either one, we put our country out of balance and at great risk. If our focus is only about health and saving lives, with decisions that are made in a vacuum, then our civil liberties and the economy go out the window. This will destroy the foundations of America. If our focus is on the extreme ends of our civil liberties, then our commitment to health and saving lives (life), the economy suffers. If it is all about the economy and a thirst for mammon (the almighty dollar), then our health, savings lives and civil liberties are overrun by corporate and personal greed. A difficult balance, indeed!
We have two models/documents that support the conclusions above.
First, is the Declaration of Independence. "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” Of course, we all know that the first pass was “life, liberty and the pursuit of property.” The Declaration of Independence supports my conclusion of moving in unison with the vital and critical subcomponents based on its own words.
Second, is the Constitution of the United States of America. “We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.” Once again, the Constitution supports my conclusion of moving in unison with the vital and critical subcomponents based on its own words.
I believe that we need to get back to work in the month of May with a phased approach that “layers in” a common sense plan by industry sector. We use the best available data and models, but at the end of the day, someone is going to have to pull the trigger. His name is President Donald Trump and he took the Oath of Office to uphold the Constitution (The Umbrella).